- The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is an integral part of the Ethiopian economic and political development strategy. It is hoped that it will provide much needed electricity for industrial development and give the country greater control over the flow of the Nile.
- Despite Cairo’s concerns regarding the dam, water flow in the Nile River is likely to become increasingly erratic and Egypt will become increasingly reliant on overseas food markets regardless of the GERD.
- The electricity generating potential of the GERD is unlikely to live up to the lofty claims originally presented by the Ethiopian Government. It is also unlikely to threaten Egypt to the extent that its government initially feared and could even help to augment the flow of the Nile in dry years.
- There has been a shift away from outright threats of sabotage and towards conciliatory negotiation since construction began in 2011. The likelihood of a “water war” occurring as a result of the GERD is very low.