Mini Glacial Period Expected After 2020 and İzmir
Climate science is a multi-disciplinary science covering especially geology, biology, chemical and physical oceanography, astronomy and all the other physical sciences and designating water, agriculture, aquaculture and energy policies of a country.
Climates are the natural phenomena continuouslyvarying in periods ranging from decades to millions of years and thus effecting and controlling especially the water, aquaculture and agriculture of the world. Basic reasons of such variations are plate motions, parameters of the rotation of the earth and variation in solar energy coming from the sun. All these events result in variations in climates in either short or long periods, periods of dry and wet cycles.The shortest of those cycles is around 20-22 years. Of this cycle, about 7-10 years is wet (over the regional averages) and 7-10 years is dry (below the regional averages) (Van Oldenbor.J.AndG.Burgers, 2005).
In climate science, global warming periods are called “pluvial-age” and global cooling periods are called “ice-age”. In other words, global warming periods are welfare periods with higher precipitations and consequently higher “productivities”. Global cooling periods on the other hand are “famine” periods with lower temperatures and consequent lower precipitations.
Since world population increases 100% in every 45 years, cooling periods, “famine periods” create more problems for humanity.
And the world is moving toward a severe cool down period expected after the year 2020, in other words to a period with fewer precipitations, less agricultural and aquaculture productions, adverse impacts on energy sector. And, entire developed countries are making preparations for such a period.
İzmir should meticulously be prepared for this “mini-glacier” period expected after the year 2020 and the agricultural and aquaculture policies of the water-poor region should urgently be rearranged.
Today, global warming, started after major global cooling (glacial period) 18 000 years ego, is still on-going even with intermittent very severe “mini glacial periods”.
The period expected after the year 2020 is also such a severe mini glacier period.In other words, science world unanimous that temperatures will decrease and therefore precipitations will also decrease and consequently severe drought period will emerge.
Olive productivity may be taken as the sample case to imagine the effects of cooling and warming periods over agricultural products. The yield per tree decreased to 9 kg during the natural cooling periods of Aegean Region in 1990s. On the other hand, the yield levels per tree increased to 14 kg during the subsequent warming period. And again yield levels decreased to 9 kg during the following cooling period of 2007s.
Such changes in climate cycles directly reflect on entire sea and agricultural products (YaşarandYıldız, 2009).
In brief, Northern Europe is covered with glaciers during the global cooling periods and entire agricultural lands are no longer in use. On the other hand, agriculture still goes on in Anatolia even with severe decrease in yields.
In 4700 years written history from the Gilgamesh, most of the wars emerged because of “global glaciers” since glaciers enlarge and agricultural lands significantly decrease during the global glacier periods and consequently wars emerge among the starving nations. For instance during the years 900s with severe global warming, Vikings sailed toward North together with the melt down of glaciers of the North and discovered the mainland “Greenland”. However, after the years 1000s, severe cooling enlarged the glaciers again and Greenland was again buried under glaciers. Then, starving Viking left the mainland and attacked Great Britain. During the same periods, Europeans made wars with each other for agricultural lands. However, with the expension of glaciers until the middle of Europe, they were not able to find land to cultivate and ultimately they came together to form Crusader Armies and attacked to Anatolia and Mesopotamia. Similarly, Chinese have built the Great Wall against the attacks of the people of Northern Asia who have lost the agricultural lands because of global cooling. In brief, glacier periods have become the nightmare of humanity.A severe cooling like the one in the years 1000s is expected after the year 2020.
For the global glacier after the year 2020 to which entire world is making preparations, the things to be done in Turkey and İzmir can be gathered under 4 items.
: Turkey is a water-poor country and İzmir is located in a region with even lower water potential. Therefore, dams should be constructed as much as possible and even a nail should be prevented in watersheds.Also, well levels should carefully be monitored from the “Scada” system and aquifers should be harnessed.The water leakage levels of 60% in the years 2000s was already reduced to 40% levels.This is a significant outcome.However, leakage-loss ratio should even be lowered. Nevertheless, the greatest problem is experienced in agricultural irrigations. Therefore, distillation should urgently be started in irrigations. While developed countries allocate 40% of their water resources to agriculture, the ratio in Turkey is around 70%.
The Netherland is a country with a size about triple of the size of İzmir but it is the third greatest agricultural exporter of the world with its 54 billion dollars export. İzmir and surroundings have 1732 different flowery plant species and 136 of them are endemic.In other words, İzmir have highly more fertile lands than The Netherland. Therefore, agricultural product patterns of İzmir and surroundings should be determined for the cooling period expected after the year 2020.
It is certain that there will be protein deficiency because of the drought after the year 2020. İzmir and surroundings have highly available sea conditions for cultural fishing practices.
In this proposed glacier period, HESdams will be out of operation because of drought-induced water deficits as it was in drought period of 1991. Therefore, alternative energy stations should be constructed to meet the energy deficits to be seen because of HES depletions.
 Van Oldenborgh, G. J., and G. Burgers (2005), Searching for decadal variations in ENSO precipitation teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023110.
Yaşar D.ve Yıldız D. 2009. “KüreselIsıtılanDünyave Su”, TruvaYayınları, 160s.