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Is the world going to run out of water?

10 May 2020 

In many places, ​the answer is ​yes – if ​we continue as ​we have done. ​The rest of the ​world could ​learn a lot ​from Denmark, ​one of the few ​countries to ​have reduced ​its water ​consumption.​

Water is a ​vital resource ​for our homes, ​industrial ​production, ​food production ​, and ecosystems. ​But the ​world’s ​water ​consumption is ​increasing ​dramatically, ​and in many ​places, ​obtaining ​enough water is ​a huge ​challenge.​

The major ​cities of Cape ​Town in South ​Africa and ​Chennai in India ​have spoken of ​‘day ​zero’ as ​the day when, ​unless it rains ​beforehand, ​there will be ​no more water ​running out of ​taps. In many ​places in the ​USA, India and ​China, aquifers ​will be emptied ​in the ​foreseeable ​future if the ​current, ​unsustainable ​pumping of ​water continues.​

In their most recent ​annual reports ​on the largest ​global ​risks, the World ​Economic Forum ​has consistently ​listed ‘​water ​crises’ ​among the most ​significant ​threats – ​well ahead of ​issues such as ​terrorist ​attacks, food ​safety and ​financial ​crises.​

What kind of ​challenges can ​we expect in ​the future, and ​how can we find ​solutions to ​the problems ​concerning ​water?​

Watch out for water stress

A good ​indication of ​an area’s ​water scarcity ​is the so-called water ​stress index ​that indicates ​the proportion ​of renewable ​resources (​precipitation ​minus ​evaporation) ​used in society ​(see figure 1).​

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Figure 1. The ​assessment of ​water stress ​defined as the ​ratio of water ​consumption to ​renewable ​water resources ​(precipitation ​minus ​evaporation).​ ​Source: WRI ​Aqueduct, ​visited 26.1.​2020

In areas with ​water stress ​levels of more ​than 20 percent,​ special ​efforts are ​necessary in ​order to obtain ​sufficient ​water. The ​closer the ​water stress ​level gets to ​100 percent, ​the more ​expensive it ​becomes to ​solve the water ​insufficiency ​in a sustainable ​manner.​

The diagram ​shows that ​areas with high ​water stress ​levels appear ​in relatively ​dry areas with ​large ​populations, ​such as the ​Mediterranean, ​the Middle East,​ Central Asia, ​most of India, ​northern China, ​western USA and ​Mexico.​

Water ​shortages can ​severely damage ​economies

Climate change ​will result in ​many areas that ​are currently ​affected by ​water stress ​becoming even ​drier and ​therefore more ​adversely ​affected, while ​other (fewer) ​areas that are ​dry today will ​get more ​precipitation ​and therefore ​less water ​stress.​

In the year ​2000, ​approximately 2.​4 billion ​people, or 40 ​percent of the ​world’s ​population, ​were living in ​areas with high ​levels of water ​stress (more ​than 40 percent)​. This number ​is expected to ​increase to 4.2 ​billion (47 ​percent) in ​2050 due to ​population ​growth, ​economic growth ​and climate ​change.​

The World Bank ​has estimated ​that the ​effects of ​climate change ​on water ​resources in ​2050 could ​result in a ​decrease in GDP ​of up to 10-15 ​percent in ​certain dry ​regions in Asia ​and Africa.​

We can no ​longer waste ​the world’​s water

Water ​consumption in ​the world has ​increased as we ​have grown in ​number and ​economies have ​grown (see ​graph 2). ​As evidenced ​in the UN’​s sustainable ​development ​goals, safe water ​and sanitation (​sewage etc.) ​are essential ​for public ​health.​

1674383.jpgGraph 2. The ​development of ​global water ​consumption ​divided by ​sectors. ​ ​Source: UNEP

Water supply ​is also a ​prerequisite ​for many of ​industrial ​products.​

Agricultural ​irrigation, ​which accounts ​for the ​majority of ​global water ​consumption, is ​crucial for us ​to be able to ​continue ​producing ​sufficient ​amounts of food.​

An increase in ​water ​consumption is ​therefore not a ​negative ​indicator of ​the state of ​the planet in ​and of itself. ​The problem is ​that we simply ​do not have ​infinite ​amounts of ​water at our ​disposal.​

Therefore, we ​must consider ​water a limited ​resource that ​we have to ​protect, ​meaning that we ​cannot continue ​to allow ​ourselves to ​waste it.​

Denmark may ​serve as a role ​model

The great ​challenges of ​the world’​s water ​resources ​require ​intelligent ​water ​management. And ​in this respect,​ Denmark has ​something to ​offer.​

Denmark is one ​of the few ​countries that ​has been able ​to reduce its ​water ​consumption ​without harming ​the country’​s welfare in ​any way. Danish ​water ​consumption ​today is ​approximately ​40 percent ​lower than it ​was in 1980 (​see graph 3), ​and it is still ​decreasing.​

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Graph 3. The ​development of ​water ​consumption in ​Denmark.​  Source: ​Jø​rgensen et al. (​2015) and ​GEUS

Denmark ​managed to ​reduce the ​curve through a ​combination of ​greatly ​increased water ​prices (​including green ​taxes), water-saving ​campaigns, more ​water-efficient ​technology in ​households and ​industry, and a ​reduction of ​water loss from ​the mains ​supply.​

This has been ​possible ​because of the ​political will ​to introduce ​unpopular ​increases in ​pricing and ​green taxes.​

SOURCE Jens ​Christian ​RefsgaardPH.D., ​DR.SCIENT., ​PROFESSOR ​EMERITUS AT ​GEUS

https://thewaternetwork.com/article-FfV/is-the-world-going-to-run-out-of-water-5eDlpGkdyO8yX4ZGwkv57g

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