WATER PEACE AT HOME WATER PEACE IN THE WORLD

General

Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C

S Jevrejeva1, , L P Jackson2, AGrinsted3, D Lincke4 and BMarzeion5 1 National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom 2 Programme for EconomicModelling, Nuffield College, 1 New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, United Kingdom 3 Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 4 Global Climate Forum, Adaptation and Social Learning, Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin, Germany 5 Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany PUBLISHED 4 July 2018 Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. E-mail: sveta@noc.ac.uk Keywords: warming of 1.5 ◦C, warming of 2 ◦C, sea level rise, flood cost, adaptation Supplementary material for this article is available online Abstract We estimate a median global sea level rise up to 52 cm (25–87 cm, 5th–95th percentile) and up to 63 cm (27−112 cm, 5th—95th percentile) for a temperature rise of 1.5 ◦C and 2.0◦C by 2100 respectively.We also estimate global annual flood costs under these scenarios and find the difference of 11 cm global sea level rise in 2100 could result in additional losses of US$ 1.4 trillion per year (0.25% of global GDP) if no additional adaptation is assumed from the modelled adaptation in the base year. If warming is not kept to 2 ◦C, but follows a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), global annual flood costs without additional adaptation could increase to US$ 14 trillion per year and US$ 27 trillion per year for global sea level rise of 86 cm (median) and 180 cm (95th percentile), reaching 2.8% of global GDP in 2100. Upper middle income countries are projected to experience the largest increase in annual flood costs (up to 8% GDP) with a large proportion attributed to China. High income countries have lower projected flood costs, in part due to their high present-day protection standards. Adaptation could potentially reduce sea level induced flood costs by a factor of 10. Failing to achieve the global mean temperature targets of 1.5 ◦C or 2◦C will lead to greater damage and higher levels of coastal flood risk worldwide.   in order to read full article please click on Jevrejeva_2018_Environ._Res._Lett._13_074014  
Share Your Comments

Only members can comment, Click here to sign up for free right now

(Your e-mail address will not be published)
Submit Review
No Comments Yet