Understanding and Challenging Global Warming
Many scientific reports have been issued since 1990, related with global climate changes , by several organization, such as United Nations, World Bank and Non Governmental Organizations etc, and the main consensus of these reports are that the World has been flowing into a path to heat up by 4 Degrees Celsius at the end of the century by the year of 2100. If the international community does not act urgently on climate change, the Global Warming will result with triggering a cascade of catastrophic changes that include, potable water scarcity, extreme heat-waves, ultra drought with declining of agricultural and sea foods stocks and the optimistic estimation one meter sea-level rise, however pessimistic scenario may be more than one meters sea-level rise affecting nearly one billion of people in the world.
The United Notion is the main organization dealing with Global Climate Change, has arranged 19 conferences by year of 2013, The UN talks have been going on over 25 years, since 1988,
with annual conferences on international communities at governmental levels, biannual meetings by business, cities, regions and civil society by producing a few actions for climate change along the way, but so far could not gained a internationally comprehensive obligatory agreement.
Intergovermental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report says, coming 30 years are very important for climate calamity, if the world carry on blowing the carbon budget.
global 2C warming threshold will be irrevocabe within 30 years, and the humankind will be pushed into a Global Chaos.
The IPCC report says the world is on the way to dangerous levels of global warming. Calved iceberg in Qaqortog,Greenland.
Kyoto Protocol :
The Kyoto Protocol
was signed in 1997, and binding developed countries for reduction their greenhouse gas emissions by about 5% by 2012. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the almost unique universal organitation, and is the parent treaty of the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol has been ratified by 192 of the UNFCCC Parties, But so far, the USA has not ratified the protokol, so its sense of performance for Global World is very limited for being hopeful in terms of the future of Global Warming.
The Kyoto Protocol’s targets varied between nations,related to their development situations , some were allowed to increase their emissions by a certain amount; others were required to make significant cuts. The World average target was a cut of around 5% relative to 1990 levels by 2012 in reality betwen 2008– 2012. According to UNFCCC study , for giving a sense , a few countries have performed against their targets. This case get out of focused, the success of the nations with Kyoto targets because much of the growth in China and other emerging economies have been driven by the production of goods and services exported to developed nations. The carbon budget of each nation at the progress made under Kyoto looks extremely poor, with Europe's savings reduced to just 1% from 1990 to 2008 and the developed world as a whole seeing, global emissions rise by 7% in the same period
. The scientists found that to hold warming to 2C, total emissions can not exceed 1,000 gigatons of carbon. However, more than half of that total allowance of 531 gigatons had already been emitted, yet by 2011
As a result, global greenhouse gas emissions have showed no sign of slowing down. In that sense, the implementation strategy of the Kyoto Protocol has collapsed completly
. Now, the Global World would like to hope that, the UN is going to develop a new applicable, challenging and more ambitious Global Warming Program in time to avoid unacceptable risks of devastating climate change and so, to ensure more confident world for next generation.
UN Climate Convention Bodies :
The current international climate change policy consists of two treaties: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), with 195 countries, has near universal membership and is the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The Convention recognizes that the contribution of countries to climate change and their capacity to cope with its consequences vary enormously. Therefore, it calls for financial assistance from Parties with more capacity and resources to the countries with less capacity and high vulnerability. Both the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol require financial and technological transfers from developed country parties to developing countries. To facilitate this, the Convention established a financial mechanism to provide funds to developing country Parties. The Convention defines the financial mechanism, whose operation on base of existing international fund entities. This financial mechanism is to function under the guidance of the Conference of the Parties ( COP) and be accountable to it, which decides on its climate change policies, programme priorities, and eligibility criteria related to the Convention.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the ultimate body of the Convention with supreme decision-making authority. It is an association of all the countries that are
Parties to the Convention. The COP reviews the implementation of the Convention
and examines the commitments of Parties in terms of the Convention’s objectives, new scientific findings and experience gained in implementing climate change policies. A main task for the COP is to review the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties. Based on this information, the COP evaluates the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention. The COP meets every year, unless the Parties decide otherwise, COP outputs include reports of the sessions summarizing, procedings and actions taken, decisions, declarations and
resolutions. The COP can also adopt legally obligating instruments such as amendments, annexes, amendments to annexes and protocols.The COP has arranged the number of 19 conferences all over the world, COP19 which was the last one exequited, Nowember 2013 in Warsaw, Poland.
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading body for the assessment of global climate change. The panel is established by the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide an authoritative source of up-to-date interdisciplinary knowledge on climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences.
IPCC produced its most comprehensive review in light of the science of global climate change, the amount of greenhouse gas can pour into the atmosphere before warming the world by more than 2 0
C, which scientists have identified as a crucial threshold beyond which many of the effects of climate change could become catastrophic and irreversible.
Copenhagen Summit (COP15 )
United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as the Copenhagen Summit, was held in Copenhagen
.The conference included the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
The Copenhagen Accord
was drafted by the United States
and South Africa
, and declared a "meaningful agreement" by the United States government
. However, after debating of all the participating countries, it was not passed unanimously. The document recognized that climate change is one of the greatest challenges of the present day and that actions should be taken to keep any temperature increases to below 2 °C. The document is not legally binding and does not contain any legally binding commitments for reducing CO2
emissions .Many countries and non-governmental organizations had opposed to this agreement .
The Copenhagen Accord recognizes the scientific case for keeping temperature rises and one part of the agreement pledges US$ 30 billion to the developing world over the next three years by 2012, rising to US$100 billion per year by 2020, to help poor countries adapt to climate change.The Accord also favors developed countries' paying developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation
and degradation, known as "REDD".
The agreement made was non-binding , US President Obama said that countries could show the world their achievements and since they had waited for a binding agreement, no progress would have been made.
The Copenhagen summit ended , in a state of chaos
. In this regards, it resulted with verbal conformation from all of the world's major
economies, developed and developing, to mitigate or cut their greenhouse gas emissions.
Doha Conference ( COP18)
The 2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference , the 18th yearly session of the Conference of the Parties (COP18) , took place in Doha,Qatar .The Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol adopted an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, which establishes the second commitment period under the Protocol.
In this regard, Doha Conference reached only an agreement to extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol
, which had been due to expire at the end of 2012, until 2020, and to objectify the 2011 Durban Platform
, meaning that a successor to the Protocol is set to be developed by 2015 and implemented by 2020. The subject adopted by the conference incorporated for the first time the concept of "loss and damage", an agreement in principle that developed nations could be financially responsible to less developed nations for their failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Warsaw Conference ( COP19)
The United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP19 was held in Warsaw
on November 2013, stretching on by one day more than scheduled. This is the 19th yearly session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 19) .
IPCC report found that global warming has been happening as a result of human actions, and that without a substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of the Global World will not respect the symbolic threshold of 2C of warming. Less Developed World wants clearer commitments on the provision of how much finance needed to help them move to mitigation of carbon emitions, The target of finance is the amount of $100billion a year by 2020. Some of this will come from public funds in developed nations, but that amount is likely to be weak, so a new ways have to be found to raise money from the international fund organizations and multinational commercial companies. At present, it is not clear how that will be possible, or how much will success towards the $100billion for financial compensation.
Developing countries also want to regenerate the subject of "loss and damage", which some interpret as compensation to poor countries from the rich for the negative effects of climate change, such as an increase in the number or intensity of typhoons and hurricanes. Developed countries said that, this is impossible. The developed nations also wanted major developing economies such as China and India to take more responsibilities in mitigating of carbon emissions, in terms of Global World.
Delegates of most of the world's poor countries have walked out of increasingly unfavorable climate negotiations after the developed countries insisted that the question of who should pay compensation for extreme climate events be discussed only after 2015 in Paris Conference.The group acting by the G77 and China bloc of 132 countries declared that during the "loss and damage" session , how those countries should overcome to negative climate impacts that are difficult or impossible to finance the catastrophic damages,
Warsaw meeting closed only with a sound good statements
that some form of progress has been made towards the 2015 goals in Paris and to come force by 2020, But the danger is that between now and that crucial date any further upsets, backsliding, failure to agree finance or deepening rifts between rich and poor, it could get out of control the whole process. That would leave the world without an agreement on tackling climate change, which would send a poor signal to investors and let countries that don't want to cut their emissions to be relax for years to come.
European Union explained clearly its reaction about climate change negotiations in Warsaw Conference "The EU understands that the issue is incredibly important for developing countries. But they should be careful about creating a new institution. This is not a way, this process needs," said Connie Hedegaard, EU climate commissioner. She declared their most important demand, insisting: "We cannot have a system where we have automatic compensation when severe events happen around the world. That is not feasible."
Unfortunately, Warsaw Conference come back to just the starting point of road and objectives of Kyoto Protocol , there is not yet a draft text for an agreement, no consensus on what a new deal should involve, or what legal form it should take. So, Warsaw Conference
( COP19 ) had been a showcase on be half of Global Warming Negotiations
by some groups, business, cities, regions, organizations and civil society etc.
Conclutions & Challenging Srategies ;
Understanding The Global Warming is a subject of establishment of empathy, creating synergy and than having a Global Vision, in terms of challenging to this world wide problem. International communities have been negotiating on Kyoto Protocol, over 25 years under the United Nations umbrella, but they could not reach a comprehensive, binding agreement for the World.
On the contrary , 195 member countries of the protocol has been separated by nearly ten groups in Warsaw Conferance, because of the “loss and damage” concept, which came up to agenda first time in the 2012 Doha Conference. It seens that, the international communities will separate to more than ten may be twenty groups for the next coming conferences, since each country has a different conditions, from the economical, social, cultural, geographical and technical point of view.
As mentioned above , greenhouse gas emition increased by 7% in the World, since signing date of Kyoto Protocol , So, It is clear that, the Globe can not go ahead even one step for tackling with climate change . On the contrary ,in case of consideration ,1% greenhouse gas increases is equale one step, the World came back seven steps.
In this regard , The UN Strategy, based on the Kyoto Protocol, could not provide a reasonable ,applicable solution, after understanding the international communities demands over 25 years negotiations practices , since each group is acting in its sole discretion .
Unfortunately, The Kyoto Protocol was diverted to a wery dangerous path of ”win –win” policy among groups,
such as a bargain between commercial companies, during the nogatiations in Warsaw Conference, The Kyoto Protocol is not a commercial treaty.
As it is known , in case of win – win nogatiations, the World will be always a loser in Global Warming.
In Warsaw, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon repeated his invitation to a climate summit in New York on 23 September 2014. This will be a solutions summit, complementing the UNFCCC negotiations. “I ask all who come to bring bold and new announcements and action by early 2015
, we need those promises to add up to enough real action to keep us below the internationally agreed two degree temperature rise,”
As a result , there is no time for discussion and nogatiation, The international communities should act urgently for developing a completally different strategy, in 2014 New York Summit, as Mr. Ban Ki-moon says in his statement.This strategy should be a Challenging Strategy for Global Warming , apart from The Kyoto Protocol.
Challenging Strategy for Global Warming is a Global Vision, taking into account all aspects of climate changes. If United Nations believes the collapsion of The Kyoto Protokol
, the mentioned challenging strategy can be easily developed only by UN before New York Summit, So, there is a very big responsibility on the shoulder of UN. Challenging Strategy should comprise all components of pollution mitigation
activities, and having reasonable and applicable perspectives with appendix of action plans.
Action Plans for Mitigation of Pollution and Overcoming Global Warming
- Air Polution Mitigation Action Plans
- Water Resources Polution Mitigation Action Plans
- Deforestation Mitigation Action Plans
The action plans include mainly the thechnical characteristic of pollution point, that is why the preparation of action plans not take to much time. After that, The United Nations responsibility is to be observer for application time schedule.