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Observed and projected changes in drought conditions of Turkey

  1 2 3 4 S. Topcu , B. Sen , M. Türkeş and B. Sen 1 Cukurova University, Faculty of Agriculture, Dept. of Agricultural Structures and Irrigation 01330 Adana/TURKEY 2 Turkish State Meteorological Service, Department of Weather Forecasting, Numerical Weather Prediction Division, 06120 Kalaba-Ankara/TURKEY 3 Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Department of Geography, Terzioglu Campus, 17020 Canakkale/TURKEY 4 Karabuk University, Faculty of Engineering, Dept. of Computer Engineering, 78050 Karabuk/TURKEY   Abstract. Drought has become a recurring phenomenon in Turkey in the past few decades. Analyzing the historical occurrence and future projections of drought characteristics such as frequency, intensity and duration provide a better understanding of the range of climate futures for one particular country. Hence, this study aimed at analyzing the likely changes of drought characteristics in the future. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used to assess the drought characteristics. Rainfall datasets for the period 1960-1990 were acquired from 52 stations throughout Turkey. The future rainfall series for the years 2070-2100 were simulated using a regional climate model (RegCM3). The validated RegCM3 was used for simulating future climatic data, and the simulated rainfall series were used for calculation of drought indices. To asses the likely changes in future drought characteristics, each simulated future rainfall series was compared with the average rainfall amount derived from the reference period in SPI calculations. The maps were drawn to determine the spatial changes of droughts. The results showed that drought conditions are diverse in the country, and also increasing trends for intensity, frequency and duration were detected. The Eastern part of Marmara, the Black Sea and north-east part of the East Anatolia Region are characterized by wetter conditions. Particularly severe drought conditions are expected in the Western Mediterranean and Aegean Regions, although other regions will also confront with more frequent, intense and long lasting droughts. Keywords. Drought monitoring – SPI – Climate change. For full article please click on Topcu et al_2010_Projected changes in drought conditions of Turkey
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